Friday, September 22, 2017

Friday's Fulminations

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Thursday, September 21, 2017

All Over The Place (Updated)

The last two major polls are not consistent so everything is up in the air.

I'm going to average these two polls and then make a prediction, slightly tinge with wishful thinking.

Poll average:-

Party                  Party Vote                  Seats

ACT                          0.5                      1
Green                        7.5                      9
Labour                     37                      45
Maori                        0.8                      2
National                  46                       57
NZ1st                       6                         7

I reckon ACT will do a bit better than the poll average and might get up to 2.0% which would give them two seats.

So my prediction is for a Nat/Act/Maori coalition by a slim majority.

So, now all that remains is to reserve a fine bottle of Coonawarra Shiraz for Saturday, sit back and watch the results come in.


I meant to add, it's a shame the two major polls do not use a larger sample, say 1500, for their final two polls.


The reality is that 'Health' is a bottomless pit.   Whatever you spend on it will not be enough egged along by the simple fact that the 'industry' (and that includes you and me) are very good at 'shroud waving'.  

The demand on vote Health will continue to increase exponentially  driven by the reality of an aging population living longer.

Which makes refusal by Labour and NZ First to countenance the lifting of the age of entitlement to NZ Superannuation to 67 thereby freeing up hundreds of millions of dollars which could be redirected into Health spending totally unconscionable.

This has nothing to do with KiwiSaver ... KiwiSaver doesn't replace NZ Superannuation ... it's a top up to provide an enhanced level of retirement ... unless of course 'they' have a (another) secret plan to means test or reduce NZ Superannuation using KiwiSaver as an offset in order to free up funding for Health ... just askin.


Winston Doesn't Like The National Anthem

TVNZ is carrying a story in which Winston Peters is promising to change the national anthem.   Good old Winston - always right there with the critical hot button issues.

I nearly died laughing when I read this quote:-

He said that, anecdotally, he had never seen Kiwis sing the anthem in times of great joy or celebration, 

By hell, they will be on September 24th if NZ1st falls below five percent.  You'll hear the song of joyous rapture echoing from coast to coast.

Not Seen in the New York Times

Here's an interesting story from the Times of London.

All about a world leader quietly intervening behind the scenes and actually preventing an all out war in the Middle East.  The western leader showed remarkable diplomatic skill and statesmanship in persuading Saudi Arabia and its Sunni friend UAE from invading Shia Qatar..

Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, Kuwait’s emir, who has acted as mediator, praised Mr XXXXX's efforts at a September 7 press conference. “Thank God, what’s important is that we stopped any military action,” he said.
You've got to hand it to those suave smooth talking French statesmen, don't you?

Well, not today because the western leader in question was that presidential boorish bastard Donald Trump.

How long before the media and the Republicans wake up to the fact that Trump is a hell of a lot smarter than they are and a sight more competent?

The NYT, CNN, MSNBC, WAPO et al would have been going nonstop ape shit for days if this triumph had been pulled off by Obama.  So far, I've not seen a word apart from the NYT calling the effort a failure.

Somehow, I think the London Times has more credibility that the New York Times..

Wednesday, September 20, 2017


Ok, we know you're  behind in the polls and running scared (and yes I said 5 days is a long time in politics) but Bill English is entirely right in calling you out on your promise to raise taxes and your attempt to label that as fake news just makes you look silly.

Fact ... Labour has promised to repeal National's effective tax cuts due to take effect from 1 April 2018.

Fact ... Those cuts have received legislative approval.   They are part of the law of the land.

Fact ... were Labour to repeal that legislation they would be legislating for tax increases.

Slam dunk.

The delicious irony in all of this is that should Labour win and to repeal the legislation they would be relying on the votes of the Greens and/or Winston First who both voted for the cuts.   Their gymnastic contortions would be a sight to behold ... voting against your own legislation ... mind boggling.

Sorry Socialist Cindy ... your faux outrage doesn't wash and that's why you're 9% behind in the polls, down 7% in the same number of days. 

Doomsday This Saturday (2)

It might be for Winston Peters if the people at Colmar Brunton are right.

It comes after an intense week of campaigning which saw Jacinda Ardern make a U-turn on tax.

His party vote has plunged to just five percent and he won't hold Northland so there's every chance of a Winstonless gummint come Sunday.

I can't remember when the polls were so 'all over the place' but of course this one is CB not Reid Research and CB has consistently had Labour ahead.  Today they are a whopping nine points behind.

I haven't pushed this poll through the election thingy but it these results are borne out, then National and ACT may well have enough to scrape in on their own.  The Maori Party would be almost a cert to join in to keep Winston away from their precious Maori seats if he did make it.

This is why elections are such marvellous sport.

Doomsday This Saturday?

Apparently some group of religious nutters in the United States have been given a preview of NZ's general election result on Saturday.

"If you have plans for Saturday, you may want to move them up a day. You see, several media outlets are reporting numerologist David Meade's prediction that this Saturday, September 23, marks the day that the world will end.......
.........The problem with almost all of the reporting, though, is that the news reports connect David Meade's doomsday predictions with a Biblical prophecy ministry named Unsealed. "

Apparently Winston Peters is some nasty character hiding behind the pseudonym 'Nibiru.'


I see the media are running a shock horror story (stoked along by Professor Jane Kelsey ... surprise, surprise) about the propriety of officials from MFAT attending a scheduled meeting of officials from the eleven countries still keen on developing a regional tree-trade agreement following the withdrawal on the United States from the TPPA.

It may be news to the media but the world doesn't stop for a country having an election and neither it should.    This is a meeting off officials for c*********s.     Their mandate is to develop a pathway forward.     It will be up to the incoming government to decide whether or not they want to travel the road ... remembering of course that Socialist Cindy is on record as saying she fully supports free trade ... cough, cough, snort.

The media is as shallow as a birdbath in much of their reporting.   If they were consistent in their thinking in respect of an election hiatus then they would be arguing that New Zealand should not be signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which opens for signature in New York today ... fact is New Zealand was a major player in developing the Treaty and will be one of the first countries to sign up to it ... today ... as it should.

Fake News (Updated)

From the BBC, desperadoes who are learning fast from CNN.

Australia's warmest winter 'driven by climate change'

Thus sayeth the headline.

This, just days after (a) the world's climate alarmist industry has admitted their models are a crock full of fictitious shit and , (b) more telling, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has admitted it has been falsifying temperature data, resulting in official readings higher than the actual temperatures.

Funny thing is, people who have lived in Adelaide for sixty years tell me this winter has been the coldest they can remember and I can vouch for the fact it has been the coldest in the six years I've been here.

What the BBC should be reporting about Australia is that as the country dives deeper into debt and as productive industries close because of over-expensive and unreliable electricity supplies, Australia's politicians and media are obsessed with the notion poofters should be allowed to marry each other.

For what reason, nobody can explain.

Oh dear.  Now the ABC is reporting unprecedented heavy frosts in central NSW.

You'd think these bloody pinko media types could co-ordinate their propaganda, wouldn't you?


The confirmation of shenanagans just keeps on keeping on.  Read the story and weep.  Whenever, the data showed a discrepancy between observation and modelling theory, somebody went in and changed the data to remove the discrepancy.  Hide the decline.

Again and again and again.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017


Comrade Peoples Princess has joined her media party mates in calling National responsible for the serious disruptions resulting from the kerosene pipe line failure.

Back in the early 1980s the refinery that was the target for everyone opposed to National and the "think big" response to a world energy crisis caused by manipulation of world fuel prices and delivery by OPEC.

In moves that the socialist left decried from the most socialist PM National ever produced included some very extreme tactical opposition to The Clyde Dam, The Motunui Ethanol Plant, expansion of Glenbrook steel plant and of course the revamp of the NZ Refining outfit at Marsden Point near Whangarei.
In the later death throws of Muldoon's classic interventionist policies that The Then Labour Party opposed vehemently and now under the peoples Princess have given new life to, the daft idiot thinks if she can upgrade The Tauranga Line to "fast Rail" for a mere twenty million a second pipeline from the refinery to AKL will be a doddle.

Here is a News Update Cindy Darling.
Back in 1980 there was no bloody RMA for wet dreaming socialists to ejaculate over and the now failed pipe was installed in under a year go to woah.
Any attempt to lay a second pipe as back up and augmentation in response to the exponential increase of demand will cost more in consent costs than the original and will take a decade to get to completion.

That is what some of the more naïve thought Mr Key was gunner sort out, but then what would the shiney arses do for a living then.

Some more news Cindy darl, the freakin pipe is owned by NZ Refining a monopolistic entity owned and operated by big oil, yep them same dudes who your new luvvie mates inhabiting the melon patch continually undermine and condemn for ruining the planet. Never to a degree the hippycritters will ever avoid using the satanic bad buggers conveniences in frequent travel though.

Inconvenient truth is struggling to break through the pack-ice of  socialist and their media enablers desire to somehow project National as responsible for what is for some a total disaster.


OK, prediction time.   Yes, I'm a National Party activist but I think I know enough about politics to be able to edit out my subjective bias from these predictions.   Anyway (and acknowledging five days in politics is a long, long time) this is how I read it.

The polls are up and down like the proverbial 'whores drawers' and from that I adduce the two main parties are probably within spitting distance of each other.   Two weeks ago I would have said the momentum was with Labour; that momentum appears to have stalled with confusion around their tax policy and especially their water tax policy.    The other thing I take from the polls is that the Greens are trending up while Winston First is trending down.    I see these as important factors in making my predictions.

Two other points to consider in making these predictions.   I assess the 'wasted vote' (ToP plus rats and mice) to be in the order of 3-4%.   Given that you can effectively add 1.5% to both the National and Labour Party Vote.   That 1.5% could be crucial.    Second, I see the Maori Party as being edited out of the conversation.     Looking at National's options and Winston has made it clear his distaste for the Maori Party as race based while, for the socialists, any accommodation with the Maori Party could come back to bite in the Maori seats held by Labour.

Having said all that and my predictions (in order of probability) are  #1 ... a Labour/Greens coalition and #2 ... a National/ACT/NZ First coalition and #3 ...  a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition.

Looking at each of these in a turn and to my good friend Psycho Milt yes, you can buy me a beer anytime.     A Labour/Greens coalition became more likely once Me Tu resigned.    Her anarchist tendencies would have created huge tensions around the cabinet table and one senses the Greens are reverting to a more environmental focus with her departure.   That Labour can handle.   But there will be tensions.   Ztev is Labour's bovver boy blogger.   On Kiwiblog he said (with a hint of malice) the best the Greens could hope for would be a ministerial position outside of cabinet.   So is Labour  going to play hardball?   Gonna be interesting to see whether the Greens, forever the spurned bridesmaid, are prepared to allow themselves to be 'poodled' in their desire to be part of government. 

A National/ACT/NZ First coalition would see National paying a price ... swallowing a dead rat(s) as Ron Mark eloquently put it.    The price might be too big.   Peters hates English with a passion remembering that English was a prime mover in having him expelled from National.   There is also the matter of Peters long standing feud with Speaker Carter.    Were Peters to demand their heads as the price for support then the deal would very much a moot.   But this is Peters last chance to exit Parliament on a high and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister (and a 'K' at the end of it) along with two ministers inside cabinet and another outside might just be enough.   Whatever and be very clear ... it will be Winston and not his Party that makes the call.

Should Labour and the Greens fall short on the numbers then a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition comes into play.   Everyone would be swallowing dead rats aplenty especially Winston who is on record in saying he would never serve in a government alongside Green Party ministers.   Nevertheless, necessity is the mother of compromise.   At best it would be a toxic coalition that would provide the opposition with much ammunition.

The election will be determined on the Party Vote.    However winning an electorate gives the Party status and there are a number of electorate contests that I will be following closely on the night.

Northland ... Paddy Gower has been on the Kool-Aid (again).   At the time of the by-election his prediction was that National would hold the seat.   This time round and he's picking Winston.   Leaving aside the Herald poll which suggested that Winston was running third behind National and Labour (I take that with a grain of salt) and I'm aware of other polls that show Matt King well in front and enjoying substantial name recognition (nipping at the heels of Winston).   A major factor is Labour.   Their candidate is well regarded and has run a full on campaign and looks to be picking up the 6,000 votes(and more) she shed to Winston at the time of the by-election in a nudge, nudge, wink, wink campaign and remembering too that Winston's majority is just 5,000..     Winston has run a less than energetic campaign supported by a very patchy electorate organisation and hamstrung by promises he made at the by-election ... free ferry travel for seniors; that he would fix the Mangawai sewage scheme debacle ... result nowt.    He perennially cries 'poor Northland' but the reality is the regional economy is booming with huge investment in infrastructure taking place.   Prediction ... Matt King to win.

Whangarei ... Peters has made much of his desire to turn Whangarei from Blue to Black/White thereby creating a NZ First power base in the greater Northland.   To do that he parachuted Shane Jones into the seat over the well regarded resident List MP Pita Paraone.   Then, to cap that he relegated Paraone to an unlikely position on the NZ First List.   Clearly loyalty to Winston is a one-way street.   The knee capping of Paraone has led to a spilt in the NZ First electorate organisation.    Clearly Winston sees Jones as his successor having worked out that his wannabee SAS current Deputy Leader is an electoral lightweight (except when it comes to rolling his predecessor).    Jones has repayed Winston's favor by being his usual lazy self expecting the electorate to be handed to him on a plate.   It won't happen.   Prediction ... Dr Shane Reti to win and win well.

Maungakiekie ... by any measure Maungakiekie is a 'bell weather' electorate encompassing both 'Blue' and 'Red' segments in approximate equal measure.   In any seismic shift to Labour the electorate is vulnerable following the retirement of the incumbent National MP, Sam Lotu tinga,   This time it's high profile Auckland Councillor Denise Lee who defeated long time Labour MP and sitting Councillor Dr Richard Northey to take the seat (increasing her majority last year by over 500%) vs Labour's trade unionist and apparatchik candidate.   Lee has run a high energy campaign and her networks allow her to stretch across the political divide so much so that there is evidence in the Panmure Basin (staunch Labour territory) that Labour voters are splitting their vote in her favor.  Prediction ... Denise Lee to win.

Papakura ... interesting (for other reasons).   This south Auckland seat should be vulnerable to Labour.   It ain't.   Judith Collins has a iron grip on it as a well regarded local MP.   Last time round and at the time of her 'troubles' her majority shrank to a tad over 4,000 down from just under 10,000 in 2011.  My picking is that she will increase it come election night against her no-name Labour candidate.   That's important.   Should National lose there will be a leadership contest.   Collins represents the National Party centre-right.   She is a 'no prisoners' politician.   She would be a very effective leader of the Opposition.   Prediction ... Judith Collins by a country mile.

Tukituki ... National is defending a 6,500 majority and with the retirement of Craig Foss they chose the long time Hastings Mayor, Lawrence Yule, as their candidate.   So far so good and then came the Havelock North water contamination crisis with the fault laid squarely at local and regional government.     Labour re-selected their 2014 candidate who, while lacking in substance, is both  telegenic and energetic.  If nothing else changed it was points to Labour but then, among came the 7th Cavalry to the rescue in the form of Labour's water tax policy which has gone down like a lead balloon in an electorate where irrigation is a major issue.   Prediction ... Lawrence Yule to win.

Te Tai Hauauru ... I am happy to admit that the more I know about Maori politics, the less I know. 
Nevertheless I will be watching this result with interest which pits the high profile Maori Party candidate Howie Tamati, CEO of Sport Taranaki and former Rugby League International and President of the New Zealand Rugby League and long time New Plymouth District Councillor  against Labour's almost invisible Adrian Rurawhe who won the seat off the Maori Party following the retirement of Tariana Turia.   Polls in the Maori seats must always be treated with caution but I am aware that a number of them show Tamati in front.   Prediction ... too close to call.

Hutt South ... National's Chris Bishop has been working this seat hard for the past six years so much so that the incumbent MP, Labour's Trevor Mallard, decided to cut and run for the safety of Labour's List.    They chose a carpetbagger in preference to a local and, word on the ground, is that she has failed to make much of an impact.    Last time round it was only Mallard's personal following that got him over the line while National won the Party vote by over 6,000.    Prediction ... Chris Bishop to win.

Ohariru ... National haven't won Ohariru since 1981 (on quite different boundaries).   Since 1994 it has been held by Peter Dunne in various guises.    Dunne bailed early on in the campaign when his own polling saw him losing to Labour.   In 2014 National won the Party vote by some 10,000 over Labour.   Despite this I suspect their candidate, List MP Brett Hudson, has a long road to hoe against a high profile Labour candidate made just a bit easier by the volte face by the Greens to run a candidate after earlier agreeing to stand aside to give Labour a clear run.   Prediction ... Labour to win.    United Future to sink without trace.

Christchurch Central ... there's something in the water in the socialist republic of Christchurch that designates them an ornery lot and yes, they've been through a pretty rough time.   But it seems that for them, everything the government does (and its government money that's paying for much of the rebuild) is wrong.   Then there was the Christchurch Cathedral debacle where it was less than edifying to see all political parties trying to outbid each other to restore a single church ... what about all the other churches that were destroyed?   That aside, Christchurch Recovery Minister Nicky Wagner has her work out out defending a 2,400 majority against a Labour candidate promising untold riches for the city should they win.   Prediction ... Labour to win.

So, there it is folks.    Don't get too het up if you disagree.   It's only me and one thing I'll guarantee ... no matter the result it will rain somewhere in New Zealand on Sunday.

Sheesh, this was a long post ... no apologies.

Updated 2.41 ... one final point in respect of the negotiations that will take place following the election.    Accepting that NZ First has more position bottom lines than the Kama Sutra but if they are determined there should be a referendum on the Maori seats then only National can agree to that.
Labour can't for obvious reasons.  

Comment of the Day

"Under Herr Hitler, the Germans invaded other countries and made the people of other countries miserable. Under his daughter, Frau Merkel, the Germans invade their own country and make their own people miserable. It seems like German rulers love invasions so much that if they can't invade other countries, they invade their own country."

Whence came this comment?

Who cares?

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Ho Ho Ho Ho

Friday, September 15, 2017

A Bit Of A Mess

The opinion polls, that is.

David Farrar has some discussion on this phenomenon over at his place where he uses the term 'diverging polls' to describe the consistent inconsistency between Reid Research and Colmar Brunton.
Reid Research consistently shows National in front while Colmar Brunton just as consistently gives Labour the lead.  These are not the stuff of credible results.

  • 30 August Colmar Brunton Nat 41%, Lab 43% = Lab +2%
  • 30 August Reid Research Nat 43% Lab 39% = Nat +4%
  • 6 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 39% Lab 43% = Lab +4%
  • 11 Sep Reid Research Nat 47% Lab 38% = Nat +9%
  • 13 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 40%, Lab 44% = Lab +4
David seems unable to provide a logical explanation for these 'divergences.'  He remarks that recently his polls at Curia also have diverged from those of Colmar Brunton.

I suggest people should look at the empirical evidence.   For both sets of polls to be accurate would require a rapid fluctuation of public opinion with wild changes occurring every three or four days.  I don't think that chance is much greater than zero.

I think there is something fishy going on at Colmar Brunton.   Either deliberately or innocently there seems to be a problem there which skews the result towards Labour.

Why would I be surprised when the client paying for the poll is the television arm of Labour and the Greens?

Of course the one thing which goes without saying is that these volatile polls are telling the Gnats to fight hard right up to September 23rd.

When it's all over, I'd be very interested to see an independent auditor go into all the major polling companies and examine their respective methodologies used for this campaign.  The industry might regain some credibility if it did just that.

Friday's Fulminations

There is mild moderation.  Normal rules of blogger etiquette and courtesy to blog hosts will apply.with serious transgressors being thrown out.

Unfortunately our system does not allow your comments to show up in the blog post itself.  Just in the comments section.

Visitors might consider the wisdom of using moderate language.



Thursday, September 14, 2017

I like not this poll, bring me a better one

And lo, a better one was brought:

1 NEWS / Colmar Brunton Poll results for tonight, Thursday September 14
Labour Party      44% (last week - 43%)
National Party    40% (last week - 39%)
Green Party        7% (last week - 5%)
NZ First             6% (last week - 9%)
TOP                  2% Steady
Maori Party        1% (last week - 2%)
ACT Party          0.6% 

Ooh, this one has a Labour/Green government not needing any other coalition partners.  I like this poll much better!  Too bad an individual poll isn't worth anything, I guess - this one would be a keeper if they were.


and lets not even talk about tax policy (although the water tax policy remains in extant ... minus numbers ... along with regional petrol taxes along their cow fart tax along with and along with) and u-turns and Captains calls and flip flops.