Tuesday, April 18, 2017

ON SYRIA

Bashar el-Assad is, like his father before him, a despot and a killer prepared to do anything to retain his grip on power.   But he does have some things going for him ... he is secular and allows freedom of religion (of a sort) and promotes female equality (perhaps due in part to the influence of his British wife)

The huge danger for the West in trying to engineer his downfall is simply ... who for they replace him with?   You might argue that is for the Syrian people to decide.  Oh that was so simple ... it's not.  The Free Syrian Army formed in 2011 by defecting Syrian Army personnel was generally seen as a providing a centrist alternative to the Assad regime.    At the very best it was a disparate grouping and in recent years its influence has declined to the point where it is now a bit player to ISIL, the dominant force,  who are committed to the establishment of an Islamic State with all that implies.   

The Assad regime is supported by Russia who, while perhaps despairing at some of the goings on of Bashar regime are comforted by the fact that, while he is a bastard, he is at least 'their bastard'.    Their support has allowed them to establish and maintain a military presence in the area.   They will not want to relinquish that. 

Syria looks like becoming a proxy for the USA vs Russia.   There is a small common ground.   Both are committed to the destruction of ISIL.     Beyond that not much.   Russia is committed to supporting Assad.  For the West and the question has to be ... what's the game plan should 'they' succeed in toppling the brute.    There are lessons to be learned from Iraq.  You leave a vacuum and that's the recipe for mayhem.  I hope they have been learned well. 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't perhaps!!!!!!!!


9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Russians aren't going anywhere. They are expanding their ship repair facility at Tartus into full blown Naval base. This is to offset the new Chinese naval base in Djibouti just on the other side of the suez canal which is next door to the US Naval base. .....this is big boys chess on grand scale. There are moves afoot to strip the stupid airhead of her British nationality.

Lord Egbut

Noel said...

Regime change wiil solve everything. Yeah aright!

https://theintercept.com/2017/04/17/trumps-abrupt-regime-change-pivot-raises-concerns-about-a-mad-max-syria-should-assad-fall/

Gerald said...

Gotta see the irony.
Islamophobic Americans with their Christan god on their side advocating regime change where the biggest losers could be the Syrian Christians.

Jobson Growth said...

" he is secular and allows freedom of religion"

As did Saddam Hussein, and look at where Iraq is now, a warring theocracy.

"promotes female equality"

As did Saddam Hussein and Look at Iraq now. Women denied education, women denied independence, women totally fucked over by the theocratic patriarchy established by the lying warmongers Bush, Blair, and Howard.

"perhaps due in part to the influence of his British wife"

Born and educated in England, but certainly not British. She is Syrian, born to Syrian parents, following the dominant religion of Syria and shagging the Syrian HoS. Hot too, tho' :-)

"The huge danger for the West in trying to engineer his downfall is simply ... who for they replace him with? "

What gives "The West" the right to overthrow any government? If, by "the West" you actually mean the uStates, take a look at their track record. Its not very good.

The last successful regime change by the uStates was Japan post WW2. Every attempt since has been marked with corruption, thievery, dishonesty and sheer bloody mindedness.

The greatest threat to world peace is not Syria or North Korea, it is the uStates led by an infantile egotistical moron. FFS, he didn't even know where his "armada" was. It wasn't, as he claimed, "steaming to North Korea", but playing hide and seek with the RAN.

Adolt, you really do need to get out and about a bit more. Get your nose out of Breitbart and flip the dial away from FOX.

The Veteran said...

Jobson Growth ... then you agree with my post then ... I'll disregard your rant about the US. Sure it ain't perfect but then you show me a perfect country ... Ok, I know in the lexicon of the Left Venezuela is but!!!!!!!!

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Good old jobless. Never content or context, just mindless abuse.

FYI I don't watch/listen to Fox or Breitbart.

If I did I could be sure of more reliable news than you can find at ABC, CNN, Guardian, Independent, NYT, SMH etc etc.

Simo said...

Its all about the gas pipelines being promoted by Russia and the US. Assad just has his Mediterrean beach house in the wrong place

Anonymous said...

There's only two nations that benefit by Syria having its guts torn out - Israel and Turkey. ISIS is a death cult and has to go, so are the so called moderate rebels, [backed by the US who will back any horse as long as its the wrong one] The White House is in the grip of the Israel lobby.
You would have to go to the local dog pound to find a similar pack of mongrels.

Mick

Anonymous said...

Jobson.....She holds British nationality and passport.

Mick......The US planes are equalled by French, German, British, Jordanian etc. This is a coalition against ISIS and Israel, and Turkey have very little to do with it. Denigrating the US for trying to right the wrongs of the Bush era is not helpful.

Lord Egbut