Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Belligerosity

As an assortment of armchair diplomats/warriors/strategists/wise-arses pontificate on what might or might not happen in North Korea, various military and non military 'solutions' are suggested.

Well, I'm going to join the fray.   Adolf has as much military and diplomatic experience as President Trump so, I am eminently qualified to have a say.

First off, I'd have to say I'm somewhat sceptical about reports of 6,500 artillery pieces and 3,500 multiple rocket launchers allegedly embedded in the hills north of the DMZ, threatening the city of Seoul.   For some perspective, note that one of largest artillery bombardments in history took place at El Alemain in 1942, using just 822 guns, firing some 930,000 shells over five hours.   The largest ever barrage was fired against Germany by Russia in 1944, delivering over 500,000 shells in half an hour from 9,000 guns.

Secondly, as I have said elsewhere, I suggest the use of nuclear weapons by either side is unlikely.  The Yanks don't need to and Kim will have his shot out of the air.

Has anyone contemplated how many men and what resources are needed to keep 10,000 guns ready for action 24/7?   I doubt very much the figure is anywhere near 10,000 but of course, nobody really knows because Gareth Morgan didn't visit the site when he was there.

However, the threat to 22 million civilian residents of Seoul is very real, whether it be from 100, 1,000 or 10,000 guns.   A 500 shell volley of 150mm ordnance fired into a heavily populated area over ten minutes might well kill more than a few thousand people.

Accordingly, I see the perceived or real artillery threat to be one the Norker Porker's trump cards.  (Did you like that one?) 

Remove the artillery threat and much of the past bluster from NK is rendered redundant. 

I suspect such an option is high on the list for the US and South Korea.  I have seen no published acknowledgement of its existence but then again, the real deal is unlikely to be leaked to slavering journalists and commentators.

All it would take would be China's secret but explicit  agreement to a limited military strike which achieves no more and no less than the destruction of North Korea's southern artillery.     A non-nuclear aerial assault using cruise missiles, stealth bombers and B52s might see the game over within half an hour or so.

Kim Jong is substantially weakened  and the obliteration of his regime using conventional weapons becomes many times easier to achieve without civilian casualties in South Korea.  (Whether China would agree to such a second stage is moot.)

So what happens then?  I suspect South Korea would make very loud noises and China might quietly move in and take over it's new southern province.

3 comments:

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Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Anonymous

Appreciate the link but I don't accept anonymous comments.

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